By 2050 the world’s human population will total nine billion, almost 2. 5 billion more than today. The total currently rises by a billion every 12-14 years, or more than 200,000 each day.
The World Bank’s Atlas of Global Development says population growth over the next few decades will be determined by two key factors that are difficult to predict: the pace of fertility decline in some developing countries and the impact of the AIDS epidemic, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Between 2000 and 2015 an additional one billion people will be added, more than half of them in Asia. The number in South Asia is projected to increase by over 350 9 million, and in East Asia and the Pacific by 8 230 million. The fastest growth will be in the poorer countries.
countries living in extreme poverty has fallen from 28 percent in 1990 to 19 percent in 2002. Still, more than a billion people live on less than the equivalent of US$1 a day. While Africa has more high poverty countries than any other developing region, Asia has the most people in extreme poverty.
While poultry meat and eggs will continue to play an increasing role in feeding the world, the rises in feed and energy prices will dampen the growth in demand. For most people consumption of chicken and eggs is still a luxury.
10
Source: FAO
7
Although the amount of arable land per person has declined in most developing countries, yields have increased. Hence, the global food supply in the past 25 years has expanded faster than the population and according to the Atlas, there is every reason to think that it will continue to do so.
However, in some areas with highest rates of under-nourishment such as Sub-Saharan Africa, food production has barely kept pace with population increases. Meeting the growing demand for food and improving the quality of life of those who depend on the land for their subsistence, requires increasing productivity.
While intensified cultivation, though the use of fertilisers, pesticides, irrigation and new plant varieties can make limited land more productive, it may worsen environmental degradation, while expansion into new land can destroy natural habitats and decrease biological diversity. Climate presents a further challenge.
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5
4
3
2
1
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2050
6000
5000
4000
Not many developing countries have witnessed the strong and steady growth essential to reducing poverty. Also, such growth does not always bring an immediate reduction to poverty levels. Poor people may not share equally in the benefits of growth. For a given rate of growth, the rate of poverty reduction depends on the initial level of inequality and how the distribution of income changes.
The proportion of people in developing
3000
1980
1985
1990
Source: FAO
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2050
2000
1000
0
Africa
N. America Latin America* Asia
Europe
Oceania
* Latin America, Central America and Caribbean
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