Global chicken meat consumption, according to our estimates, will average 11.3kg/person this year. Between 1995 and 1999 we assess that this figure increased from 8 .3kg to 9.4kg, while the next five years witnessed further gains to 10.9kg/person in 2004.
The outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) during the past few years have had an adverse effect on consumption levels such that the worldwide average has only shown a slight increase from the 2005 level of 11.1kg. Our provisional figure for 2007 points to an average of 11.2kg, while this year could see it closer to 11.3kg/person. However, had the consumption gains since 2004 been in line with those of the previous 10 years then the global uptake would be in the region of 12.2kg/person.
Possibly the most commonly used and abused industry statistics are the quantities of a product consumed/person/year. While questions can be raised against all industry statistics, the consumption/person data are the least reliable as considerable errors can be built into the assessment of available supplies and these can be compounded by the forecasts of the human population.
The FAO had not published its 2006 consumption estimates, at the time this report was compiled. Nevertheless, we have included that organisation’s data for 1995, 2000 and 2005 as, except where outbreaks of HPAI have cut chicken consumption, for most of the 180 or so countries listed, the changes from one year to the next will not be significant.
However, we have been able to show United States Department of Agriculture’s estimates for poultry consumption in selected countries for the years 2003 to 2008 and have also included America’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute’s (FAPRI) forecasts for the likely levels of broiler consumption in 2017. Obviously the latter figures will not be directly comparable for all the countries because the FAPRI stats will only apply to chicken uptake.
Although the average levels of uptake/ person actually contracted in some of the years in a few of the countries listed, the picture of 2008 against 2003 is optimistic in almost every case except Indonesia, the Philippines and Taiwan. But, looking further ahead to 2017, growth is anticipated universally.
will result in a reduction in the quantities of chicken bought, particularly as in some low-income countries food expenditure can account for more than 50 percent of income.
However, for the better off it is possible that, because the prices of competitive meats will likely increase in the next few years more than those for chicken, some consumers will switch from beef or pork and consequently boost sales of chicken meat.
An important factor to consider is not just the increase in consumption/person, but also how this relates with the human population growth. Thus, although average consumption in India might only rise by 0.1kg/person from say 2.1kg in 2008 to 2.2kg in 2017, when the change in human population numbers from 1.15 billion today to 1.41 billion in 2017 is brought into the equation, total chicken meat consumption would increase by a massive 700,000 tonnes from 2. 4 million tonnes to around 3.1mt.
There are few figures on per caput consumption of turkey meat but the data provided in the accompanying table highlights the point that of the countries reviewed only Brazil’s uptake is increasing.
12
10
8
6
4
2 0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
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