Poultry meat exports hit record high

Poultry meat exports are forecast to reach a record 9. 6 million tonnes, according to FAO’s Food Outlook. This is 4. 3 percent above last year’s estimated 9.2mt and compares with 8.5mt in 2006. Half of this year’s growth is expected to originate from Asia, especially China.

FAOSTAT’s figures have not been updated, so regional annual totals from last year are repeated, however, trade estimates for 2007 and forecasts for 2008 for broiler and turkey meat from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service are included.

Following the 4 percent contraction of broiler meat trade in 2006, according to ₉₀₀ USDA’s FAS, 2007 witnessed a recovery to 7.3mt. This upward trend is expected to ₈₀₀ continue this year to 7.8mt. Trade between European Union (EU) member countries 700 and exports/imports of chicken paws are not included. USA exports of paws are ⁶⁰⁰ 400,000t per year.

Shipments to Japan have recently declined
but forecasts point to a relatively stable level
for the next few years.

World trade in turkey meat has fallen since peaking at 600,000 tonnes in 2005. However, USDA is optimistic that it will rebound to 590,000t from the latest 2007 estimate of 554,000t.

An upswing to a 274,000t is expected
in the USA. Shipments from Brazil could
reach 180,000 this year comparing with only
136,000t four years ago.
Mexico, the largest importer, is forecast
to purchase more than 200,000t this year.
The EU, and more particularly Russia, have
purchased smaller quantities since 2004.
Although total imports for 2008 appear to
drop sharply from 2007, this is not the case
if allowance is made for purchases in the
“others” category.
World chicken meat exports (000 tonnes)

1000

500

Brazil, USA increase exports
Brazil and the USA, with more than three-
quarters of global exports, will increase
shipments. The EU will likely become a net
importer for the second successive year.

USDA expects Brazil’s exports to exceed 3.2mt (FAO Outlook says 3.6mt). The country will be on track to boost shipments to over 3.8mt by 2016, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Brazil’s main customers in 2007 were the EU, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Hong Kong and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). By purchasing 195,000t (up more than 48,000t on 2006), the UAE has displaced Russia from fifth place.

Favourable exchange rates will help expand US broiler exports to 2.7mt with growth expected to around 3.2mt over the next eight years. The EU is less competitive partly due to the strengthening Euro. This region will likely be a net importer.

Thailand’s exports have recovered from a 2004 low of 200,000t and should exceed 300,000t this year with good long-term prospects. China’s exports are expected to expand towards a record 400,000t, with imports growing faster, possibly reaching 600,000t this year.

Russia, the EU, China and Saudi Arabia, are expected to increase imports in 2008. Russia’s imports could top 1.2mt., but may be constrained by government policies to encourage domestic production, keeping imports at current levels.

400

300

200

100

0

1996 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Although updated figures are not available, a 4 percent contraction of broiler meat
trade in 2006 is estimated, to be followed by a 7.3mt recovery in 2007.

World turkey meat exports (000 tonnes)

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000 ₀

1996

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

World trade in turkey meat has fallen since peaking at 600,000 tonnes in 2005.