Chicken meat expansion is halved

Globally, the growth in poultry meat production is slowing down. This is true for all classes of stock - chickens, turkeys, ducks and geese. In the short term, higher feed and energy costs may apply a brake to rates of expansion in output. However, in the long term, because chickens convert feed more efficiently than the main competitors, consumer demand in the more prosperous nations will swing further towards chicken leading to rapid growth.

Forecasts by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ⁸⁰⁰⁰⁰ (OECD) point to an increase in poultry meat production of 2 percent/year putting 70000 output in 2017 at 105.7 million tonnes (mt) from a 2007 estimate of 85.7mt. ₆₀₀₀₀ Another estimate puts production in 2007 at 89.5mt, in which case output in 2017 ₅₀₀₀₀ could well approach 110mt.

Chicken meat accounts for around 86

40000

percent of total poultry meat production. Chicken slaughterings (including culled layers) will total around 51,000 million ³⁰⁰⁰⁰ birds in 2008 compared with around 38,000 million in 1998. ²⁰⁰⁰⁰

2007 anticipate the global total unlikely to
exceed 3.9mt – an annual gain of less than
1 percent.

Output for goose meat plus a small contribution from guinea fowl, is similar to that for ducks. The years 2006 and 2007 recorded gains of about 2. 4 percent and 1 percent respectively. Total production was about 2.6mt last year.

The 2008 estimates from USDA’s Foreign

Agricultural Service estimate an optimistic
4. 4 percent gain in the broiler sector and
a more moderate 2. 3 percent increase in
turkey meat output.

In 2006, major changes among the top 10 countries in chicken meat production are a drop to eighth for Indonesia, presumably due to the HPAI outbreaks, and the appearance of Argentina where production has doubled over five years to 1.3mt.

World chicken meat production (000)

Source: FAO

Increase drops to 2 percent

The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) has yet to release the provisional data for chicken meat output in 2007, however, indications are that in both 2006 and 2007, the annual increase was less than 2 percent, which contrasts with 4 percent over the prior decade.

The USA’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute forecasts world chicken meat production approaching 88mt by 2017, with an average annual increase of less than 2 percent. Feed costs could drop as a result of higher production, especially if biofuel growth slows or alternative products are used for its production.

10000

0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Forecasts indicate a slowing to 2 percent increase per year beginning in 2006.

Regional chicken meat production (000)

30000

25000

Source: FAO

20000

Reduced turkey, duck output

FAO data point to global turkey meat output of 5.8mt for the years 2004-2006. However, the figures may be overstated. Although our 2006 total is 6 percent higher than 10 years earlier, after reaching a peak of almost 5.5mt in 2002, production has slipped back to about 5.1mt. Significant improvements on this level seem unlikely in the short-term, unless the downward trend evident in Europe is reversed.

Since 2005 duck meat growth has
slowed dramatically and early estimates for

15000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

10000

5000

0

Africa

Asia

Europe Latin America N. America Oceania

Latin America, Central America and Caribbean

Asia and Latin America will be the two major contributors to 2006 growth.